May 19, 2008
I am working with some forecasting consultants at work and the general consensus is that oil prices will go back down sometime in the next year, although Goldman Sachs thinks it is going up to $200/barrel in the next six months. One article I read notes that $25 of the current barrel price is a premium resulting from high levels of market speculation.
Part of me likes the higher gasoline prices because (supposedly) there are less drivers on the road. But considering that Americans will drive their finances into the ground instead of changing their habits, those who can afford it will continue driving often and aggressively, and those who can't afford it will continue driving often and aggressively on credit.
I tried an experiment the past few weeks: I started driving my car in a way that makes it more fuel efficient (meaning more gradual accelerations and decelerations). Around town I am getting 26-27 mpg. But this is pissing a bunch of other aggressive drivers off, because driving the speed limit in Birmingham is a cardinal sin that will win you the bird finger and a pickup truck (with University of Alabama stickers) hovering three inches from your bumper.
Since I drive about 10,000 miles per year, an increase in fuel prices won't kill my budget. At 26 mpg, a dollar increase in fuel will cost me an extra $385 annually. I think that is the case for many people in the middle class who take mostly short distance trips. I don't think habits will change until gas is around $6-7/gallon.
Posted by megabeth at May 19, 2008 05:47 PM
I am having a bit of trouble believing this, but I cannot tell ANY difference in the amount of traffic on the routes I drive around B'ham. On the road to Auburn Friday afternoon it took us from 3:57 pm until 4:30 pm to get from Dolly Ridge Road to Hwy 119 on US 280.
You are entirely correct about owners of 26 MPG vehicles not having nearly as much pain as one might think. But there sure are a lot of SUVs on 280. It will be most interesting to see what happens to them if gas hits 6 or 7 dollars a gallon.
Posted by: Stan at May 19, 2008 06:40 PM
Someone I work with who drives a long way to get home said he has seen a 20% reduction in traffic. I would have to see that to believe it.
I think anyone who drives an SUV can afford $6-7 gas, not because the SUV is expensive, but because they think it's worth the extra money to (a) haul lots of stuff/people/air (b) terrorize other drivers on the road and (c) drive halfway in one lane and halfway in another while talking on a cell phone.
Posted by: megabeth at May 19, 2008 08:38 PM
The effect of price on consumption will be incremental, but you can see the beginnings of a new division in society between those who can afford to keep a car on the road and those who cannot. With scarcity of any kind -- and the cause (peak oil, speculation, etc.)is unimportant in this regard -- comes violence. I guess we should begin to see violent events around gas pumps presently. That will happen sooner than the downsizing of vehicles.
Posted by: chris robinson at May 20, 2008 09:07 AM
I'm surprised people haven't been siphoning gas more frequently from parked cars. It costs $130 to fill up a Suburban. I just read an article about people stealing manhole covers and selling them to scrap yards.
If scarcity brings violence, then why aren't people killing each other in Europe over gasoline? It has been over $6/gallon there for over a decade. I guess they are more civilized.
Posted by: megabeth at May 20, 2008 09:15 AM
This is amazing. I did read an article about hypermiling this morning and it had some good tips too. I thought I had pretty good milage hygiene until now. I did an experiment on the way home.
Normally I get 26 mpg on my commute. Today I tried simply pushing in the clutch when going down hill and coasting at 800 rpm instead of 2500. I also took it easy on the take offs and tried to conserve as much momentum as possible. There was some stop and go on 65 so it was not ideal. I never got over 60 except when coasting. The zoom-zoom was a little sad. But not so sad! I got 38.5 mpg!!!! I will try longer to sauer this is valid data. But it seemed accurate and normally I get decent data for that length trip. Yay! Still looking forward to the infinity mpg that I get on my bike!
Posted by: A at May 20, 2008 06:17 PM
Follow up. Not quite as exciting round trip. It is uphill from home to work by about a net of 150 feet. I had noticed previously that I get better milage going from work than to work. Then I wasted time going around the block an extra time because I forgot my badge and had to go in the other gate. Then the parking deck is uphill too on the way in! (and I didn't reset the computer till after I was out of the deck yesterday so missed the downhill benefit there.)
The final round trip milage was still over 35 mpg. This is still amazing and is a 33% improvement.
This would save me $550 per year at 15k miles and $3.90/g for premium.
And it is more fun to drive purposefully than robotically keeping up with traffic. It is a challenge to stay out of the way and also avoid getting slowed down when trying to conserve momentum. Feels a lot like trying to ride a fixie with a group of geared bikes. This won't work in bumper to bumper traffic. And on that note I have to say the traffic seems a little thinner these days. Yay!
Posted by: A at May 21, 2008 10:47 AM
Good point on Europe, and I guess there are three interrelated answers. One, is there has been some violence (Spain, Germany) that follows the class lines I've described. Two, Europeans do not subsidize oil companies as we do. The result is far higher gas prices at the pump, but less volatility in the market. Third, the decreased volatility can also be explained in terms of far greater emphasis on mass transit, fuel efficiency, and alternative energy sources in EEU nations.
Posted by: chris robinson at May 21, 2008 03:16 PM
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