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October 31, 2007
exuberance

I'm no Greenspan, but it seems to me that the stock market has been a little too happy lately. For example, every stock on my watch list has appreciated significantly in value, including the banks that were hammered by the subprime mortgage fallout. Greenspan said recently that the Chinese stock market is in a state of 'irrational exuberance' (cue the days before the Internet bubble burst in 2000). If there is a fallout in Asian markets, then there will be some effect to everything, I think. This past month, the level of foreign investment in U.S. stocks has tanked.

Last fall, the same exuberance seemed to be occurring in the markets, and there was a gradual correction that led to a bottoming out in the late spring, then things started picking up again slowly.

I secretly hope for an overall market correction because I want to buy on a dip. Patience is not one of my virtues, so it is hard to sit here and wait.

Most pundits think that the housing situation won't recover until 2010. In the news today: the number of houses on the market is currently at a 9-year high. So it's in most people's best interest not to sell a house unless you are going bankrupt, transferring to another city, or dead. Wanting to move to another part of town or wanting an additional bathroom doesn't seem like justification for taking a $20-30K cut, but what do I know. I'm conservative.


Posted by megabeth at October 31, 2007 09:23 AM
 
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